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Intelligent AI

Welcome to the world of trading with Artificial Intelligence.

Intelligent AI is the next generation of artificial intelligence running exclusively within the NinjaTrader 8 trading platform. Artificial Intelligence has provided enormous advances in many fields. The newest advances are in the field of Deep Learning. We bring these advances to trading with our AIFS (Artificial Intelligence Forecast System) Platform. Our AIFS models were trained to learn the underlying structure of the market and forecast what is most likely to happen in the next 6 hours. The AIFS platform generates classifications and trade recommendations making it easy to understand and to implement basic trade setups.

We currently have Intelligent AI subscriptions available for E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) and Euro/USD FX futures (6E). If you would like to purchase a subscription, go to our shop page and select a symbol.

The most crucial question in trading is, "Is this trade worth the risk?" The answer is to only take trades that have an advantage. However, you cannot calculate advantage without knowing the likelihood of winning or losing.

AIFS gives you a chance to change the odds. You can have a competitive advantage. This manual covers the basics. Learning to confidently trade with AIFS will take a little time. The first step is to understand the chart elements, the advice panel and the controls.

User Manual

The purpose of this manual is to help you learn the AIFS platform. The manual is broken down into sections and each section covers the principles that need to be learned before moving on to the next section.

AIFS Checklist

Step by step approach to increasing your odds of a successful trade.

  1. Notification of new forecast.
  2. Check class and bias.
  3. Check size of trade zones.
  4. Check extent of blue or red zones in the direction of the class.
  5. Check position of green line.
  6. Check trend of green line.
  7. Check trend of zones (red in uptrend, blue in downtrend).
  8. Measure for possible lows and highs using the zone high and low extensions.
  9. Note high and low of the just finished forecast window.
  10. Note invalidation points.
  11. Note areas of support and resistance that align with blue zone and red zone.
  12. Decide aggressive or passive using information.
  13. Plan for possible trades.
  14. Calculate stop loss at 2.5% of account size. $50,000 account, 25 point stop loss, 1 ES contract.
  15. Enter trade with target and stop using invalidation point, zone extremes and predicted highs and lows as guides.
  16. Size trade using allocation.
  17. Note new forecast eligibility time for open order adjustments.
  18. Adjust stop and target of open trade to trigger levels.
  19. Check each 30 minutes for trigger level changes.

Advice Panel Overview

The Advice Panel is organized into three sections; Forecasts, Zone Information and User Controls. The functions and usage are outlined in the pages below.

1 – My Account button. Opens your default browser and takes you to your Intelligent Trader online account.
2 – Current local time.
3 – Current Forecast.
4 – Previous Forecast.
5 – Next Eligible Forecast.
6 – Zone and Plot data.
7 – Current 30-minute bar number. Bar #0 = New forecast, Bar #12 = New trigger levels.
8 – User control buttons.
9 – Previous forecast info box showing the date, time, forecast classification and PaP (Price at Prediction).
10 – AIFS blue zone represents inexpensive prices.
11 – AIFS blue zone represents inexpensive prices.

Section - Forecasts

The Forecast section is where vital trading information is displayed and updated to the user. It consists of three primary areas.

1 – Current Forecast: Date and time of the current forecast, the classification of the forecast, and any active trade recommendations. Background color turns green for long trade considerations and red for short trade considerations.

2 – Previous Forecast: Date and time the previous forecast was issued and the classification of the that forecast.

3 – Next Eligible Forecast: Date and time of next eligible forecast. Depends on market conditions and trigger levels.

In this example of the ES, the current forecast of Vertical down, Bias down was issued at 3:52pm on 12/17/21. There was a Consider initiative short setup recommended so the background turned red and the PaP (Price at Prediction) was 4607.25. The next eligible forecast was at 10:30pm on 12/19/21. The previous forecast was issued at 7:40am on 12/17/21 with a classification of Vertical down, Bias up.

Section - Zone Information

The Zone Information section conveniently displays price levels and zone sizes from the current forecast.

The first four boxes show the boundaries of the Red Zone, White Zone, and Blue Zone.

The next box is the “Price Predictor” which shows the current level of the green line model.

The following four boxes show the sizes of all the zones and the total predicted range. The relative sizes of the Red and Blue zone give information about the ease of price movement up or down. In this case, the Blue zone is considerably bigger than the Red zone. The big difference suggests downside movement will be easier than upside movement.

The Max Range box shows the total predicted range. You can use this information to estimate reachable targets at half Max Range.

Section - User Controls

All the user controls are push buttons that retain their settings until you change them. Some enable features, while others display information that helps you to assess a forecast quickly.

AI: Turns on/off the AIFS plots and regions on the current chart allowing you to see a standard price chart. Turn off the AI before turning on the UPP Plot.

UPP Plot: Turns on/off the plot of the Green Line model. You can easily see the trend of the Green Line model.

Forecasts: Turns on/off the visibility of the forecast info boxes. They will show the date, time, classification and PaP for each of the 20 previous forecasts.

Alerts: Turns on/off AIFS audible alerts. There are audible alerts for new forecasts, forecast invalidations and new trigger levels.

Notifications: Turns on/off AIFS notifications. Notifications are sent via the internal Ninja Trader Share Services. Options are for email/text notifications for new forecasts, forecast invalidations and new trigger levels. In order to receive notifications NinjaTrader must be running.

Triggers: Turns on/off the graphics display of the upper and lower trigger prices on the chart while waiting for a new forecast.

Notifications

When notifications are turned on, our built in ITAS (Intelligent Trader Alert System) will send out text and email notifications. The notification contains the current issued forecast, symbol which issued the forecast and date and time of the forecast. In order to send notifications, NinjaTrader 8 must be running and the share services configured. See a video here of showing how to setup share services.

Email Example

Text Message Example

The AIFS Models

AIFS (Artificial Intelligence Forecast System) consists of two independent artificial intelligence models.

Price Distribution Model (PDM)
The PDM forecasts the likely distribution of prices in the next 6 hours. This model creates the Red, Blue, and White areas on the price chart. This model tends to set the limits of price movement and to point areas for potential trades.

Price Prediction Model (PPM)
The PPM predicts the most likely ending price. The PPM displays its forecast as the "Green Line" on the price chart. The Green Line model also tends to lead the market.

The two models work together to show traders what trades to take and where to place stops and targets. You will learn to set your trading plan using our AIFS models. Trading this way will give you a competitive advantage over other traders.

Trading can be frustrating and confusing. Traders are routinely influenced by what news they see and hear, which leads to emotional trading and inconsistent results. Your ingrained tendencies can also cause misreading of AIFS forecast information.

To make trading with Intelligent AI simple, we invented a system of classifications. The classifications are a great way to begin trading with our AIFS models.

Classifications

Classifications contain two parts; the class and the bias. When a forecast triggers, a new classification is displayed. You will see this at the top of the advice panel. Each new forecast is usable for 6 hours.

Classes

There are six different classes in the AIFS platform.

Vertical Up
  • What should happen:
    Price should make a Higher High and a Higher Low than the previous forecast.

  • Recommended Trading Strategy:
    Favor Long trades. Price should not trade below the lowest price in the previous forecast.
Muted Vertical Up
  • What should happen:
    Price should make a Higher High and a Higher Low than the previous forecast.

  • Recommended Trading Strategy:
    Favor Long trades. Price should not trade below the lowest price in the previous forecast. Limit expectations and be sure to take profit at modest targets.
Vertical Down
  • What should happen:
    Price should make a Lower High and a Lower Low than the previous forecast.

  • Recommended Trading Strategy:
    Favor Short trades. Price should not trade above the highest price in the previous forecast.
Muted Vertical Down
  • What should happen:
    Price should make a Lower High and a Lower Low than the previous forecast.

  • Recommended Trading Strategy:
    Favor Short trades. Price should not trade above the highest price in the previous forecast. Limit expectations and be sure to take profit at modest targets.
Rotational Conflict
  • What should happen:
    Price should rotate up and down.

  • Recommended Trading Strategy:
    Wait patiently for opportunities.
Directional Conflict
  • What should happen:
    A one-sided directional grind.

  • Recommended Trading Strategy:
    Take advantage of false moves.

Bias

The final component of an AIFS forecast is the Classification Bias. There are three of them; Bias Up, Bias Down and Bias Neutral.

Every time a new forecast is triggered:

  1. The Green Line model predicts an ending price. Remember, the ending price will not be known for at least 6 hours.
  2. The price level when the forecast triggers is the starting price.
  3. We compare the predicted ending price with the starting price.

To determine the bias, if the predicted ending price is greater than the starting price, the Bias is Up. If the predicted ending price is less than the starting price, the Bias is Down. If the predicted ending price is the same as the starting price, the Bias is Neutral.

Adjustments to Forecasts

As the market moves, the current forecast zones and green line will move too. The adjustment of predicted levels in reaction to newer data is standard statistical practice. The updated levels provide more accurate information for trades taken later in the forecast window. You will only see adjustments made on the half hour or hour. Note, the adjustments are not predictive.

You should be aware of the possibility of zone movement when taking trades. For instance, you may put your stop for a long position slightly below the blue zone. Understand the blue zone can fall in reaction to a persistent move down in price. It is good practice to leave a little more room to accommodate this possibility. Never move your stop during an existing trade in reaction to zone movements.

Putting It All Together

Each Classification has a Class and a Bias assigned to it. That makes for 16 combinations. However, the analysis of the market using AI is more complex.

You also have to consider:

  1. The relative position of the green line model.
  2. The size and extent of the trade zones.
  3. The trend of the green line model.
  4. The near term context of the forecast.

This complexity makes for 1000s of possibilities. For that reason, we will not be showing every possible Classification with trading instructions. We find the best way to learn is by example.

Trade Recommendations

All trade recommendations are specific to the current classification and will be displayed in the Current Forecast area of the Advice Panel.

Consider Long Trades
  • This trade recommendation will appear when the price is in the Blue zone in bullish situations. These will be reversal type trades.
Consider Short Trades
  • This trade recommendation will appear when the price is in the Red zone in bearish situations. These will be reversal type trades.
Consider Initiative Long
  • This trade recommendation will appear when the price is in the White zone in very bullish situations. These will be momentum type trades. The green line will be located in the red zone.
Consider Initiative Short
  • This trade recommendation will appear when the price is in the White zone in very bearish situations. These will be momentum type trades. The green line will be located in the blue zone.
No Trades Recommended
  • This trade recommendation will appear when it is appropriate to be patient. Over trading is one of the most common dangers of trading and usually leads to more capital loss than gain.
Longs not recommended
  • This trade recommendation will appear when the current forecast has a class of Vertical Down.
Shorts not recommended
  • This trade recommendation will appear when the current forecast has a class of Vertical Up.
Forecast has been Invalidated
  • This is not a trade recommendation but a warning that the current price has traded outside of predicted parameters specific to the forecast classification.

  • What you should do when a forecast is invalidated depends on whether or not you are in a trade.
    If you are not in a position, do not enter new trades until the next forecast is issued.

  • If you are in a position, exit any losing trade immediately, even if your stop was not hit. You can hold winning trades for bigger targets. There are no conditions that statistically justify trading an invalidated forecast.

Trade Examples

Directional Conflict

At 9:07 am on Thursday January 13, 2022, AIFS issued a new forecast. It was a directional conflict with a down bias. The setup calls for a short entry above the high of the previous forecast. AIFS was recommending a short as seen in the advice panel and additionally the current forecast background in the advice panel turned red. A short position was taken @ 9:11 am with an entry of 4730.25. Our stop loss was set at the bottom of the red zone at 4740.

We set our target a couple of points below the low of the prior forecast at 4708. Looking at the trend of both the zone models and the green line model it was apparent that we were still inside a maturing sideways structure. Under this condition we want to close this trade at our target. The target of 4708 was reached at 10:51 am for a successful trade of 22 points. 

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